As Vietnam has become increasingly integrated into the global economy, it will become more susceptible to worldwide economic shifts, including the most recent possibility of an international recession; however, the influence will not as major as players deeply intertwined with major market motivators.
Global impact
“The US economy is one shock away from a recession,” US investment bank Lehman Brothers commented late yesterday, January 22.
Other experts share the same view, especially after the world’s stock markets plummeted yesterday.
In Europe, the DAX index dropped by 194.41 points (2.86%), the FTSE 100 dropped by 27.3 points (0.49%), and the CAC 40 fell by 48.67 points (1.03%).
In Asia, the Hang Seng Index fell 2,061.23 points (8.65%), Strait Times down by 72.85 points (2.5%) and Nikkei 225 dropped by 752.89 points (5.65%).
The main US indexes also witnessed sharp falls yesterday with the lowest decrease at 3.5%.
Lehman Brothers thinks that 40% of the US economy will fall into recession but the situation can be improved if the US FED takes strong preventative actions.
In the latest news, the FED decided to cut short-term deposit interest rates by 0.75% from 4.25% to 3.5%, the sharpest since September 11, 2001.
Vietnam may avoid drastic impacts
Experts say Vietnam may suffer from a global economic recession as global integration depends.
Vietnam’s stock market witnessed another lackluster day yesterday, as prices of all shares continued to fall, though listed companies announced satisfactory business results. Analysts say investors are fleeing the market because they fear a global recession may adversely impact Vietnam.
The VN Index fell to 807.74 points, the lowest since January 5, 2007.
However, the World Bank thinks the US’ problems will not influence Vietnam too much.
A recent report by the WB forecast that the global growth rate will be 3.3% in 2008, a bit lower than 2007’s 3.6%.
The report also said that if the US economy falls into a serious recession, this may further dampen growth in developing countries, including Vietnam.
The Asia Pacific region is thought to achieve a GDP growth rate of 9.8% in 2008, and 9.6% in 2009, while Vietnam is expected to see growth rates of 8.2% and 8.3% for 2008 and 2009, respectively.
International press agencies have also quoted economists who say that as Asian economies do not largely depend on the US, they will not suffer much from a US recession.
Japan, which is a main exporter to North America, will suffer most from the recession, while China will also see adverse effects as it is striving to increase exports to the US. (VNN)
Showing posts with label Economic. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economic. Show all posts
Sunday, February 22, 2009
ODA- success story in Viet Nam-Japan relations
Official development assistance (ODA) has always been a success story in the Viet Nam-Japan relations, especially as the two nations are heading forward a long-term strategic relationship.
Japan has over the recent years been the leading ODA donor for Viet Nam, providing more than 1.3 trillion yen (roughly 12 billion USD) in the 1991-2006 period. Japan’s ODA commitment made by late 2007 topped 123 billion yen, a significant rise compared with its commitment of more than 103 billion yen in 2006.
In a recent visit to Viet Nam, the Japanese Finance Minister Fukushiro Nukaga has reiterated that the Japanese government is considering the implementation of three large-scale infrastructure projects in Viet Nam that use Japanese development assistance, including the Hoa Lac high-tech park, the North-South express railway and the North-South Highway.
In the meeting with Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung on January 7, the Japanese Minister also made a pledge that Japan would continue its support to help its Southeast Asian partner reduce poverty and develop infrastructure.
"Viet Nam is the only case and the only country that has been enjoying continuously increasing development assistance from Japan,” Japanese Ambassador to Viet Nam Norio Hattori told a Vietnam News Agency as saying.
Of 123 billion yen commitment to Viet Nam in 2007, Japanese ODA loan for Viet Nam increased about 20 percent over 2006.
Ambassador Norio Hattori attributed this ODA increase to the fine relations between Japan and Viet Nam, which were defined as strategic partnership by the prime ministers of the two countries in October 2006.
He also noted that Japan decides to increase its development assistance to Viet Nam as Viet Nam integrates further into the world economy, more resources will be needed for improvement of the national competitiveness and acceleration of Viet Nam’s institutional reforms.
Japan, as well as other international donors, appreciates that Viet Nam is a good ODA recipient, the Japanese Ambassador added, “I would say that we are rather satisfied with the way Viet Nam has used our money,” but a concern over the slow disbursement of the ODA still remains.
Despite increasing its ODA loan to Viet Nam, Japan is slightlly reducing its non-refundable assistance compared with last year. This is not the only case for Viet Nam but a common trend that is happening to other countries in the world, especially the middle-income countries, Ambassador Norio Hattori explained. “Vietnam is approaching the middle-income countries and there are other poorer countries that need more grant assistance than Viet Nam.”
At the same time, he also said Viet Nam now has huge needs for infrastruture projects such as roads, airports, ports and power station, which are best suited for receiving ODA loans as they are capable of generating profits.
Japan’s aid to Viet Nam in the non-profit areas such as health, education and poverty reduction has been effectively benefited to Vietnamese people.
Both Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung and President Nguyen Minh Triet have recognised the importance of Japanese assistance in the attainment of Viet Nam’s socio-economic successes over the years. They particularly highlighted Japan’s support in three infrastructure projects that have strategic meaning to the country’s economic development in the future.
President Nguyen Minh Triet and Japan’s newly appointed Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda agreed on a cooperation project on building up a strategic partnership between the two countries in November 2007, in which the Japanese PM reiterated his support to Viet Nam through continued assistance to help improve Vietnamese people’s living standards, promote economic growth, resolve social issues and those relating to institutional mechanism.
Japan has over the recent years been the leading ODA donor for Viet Nam, providing more than 1.3 trillion yen (roughly 12 billion USD) in the 1991-2006 period. Japan’s ODA commitment made by late 2007 topped 123 billion yen, a significant rise compared with its commitment of more than 103 billion yen in 2006.
In a recent visit to Viet Nam, the Japanese Finance Minister Fukushiro Nukaga has reiterated that the Japanese government is considering the implementation of three large-scale infrastructure projects in Viet Nam that use Japanese development assistance, including the Hoa Lac high-tech park, the North-South express railway and the North-South Highway.
In the meeting with Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung on January 7, the Japanese Minister also made a pledge that Japan would continue its support to help its Southeast Asian partner reduce poverty and develop infrastructure.
"Viet Nam is the only case and the only country that has been enjoying continuously increasing development assistance from Japan,” Japanese Ambassador to Viet Nam Norio Hattori told a Vietnam News Agency as saying.
Of 123 billion yen commitment to Viet Nam in 2007, Japanese ODA loan for Viet Nam increased about 20 percent over 2006.
Ambassador Norio Hattori attributed this ODA increase to the fine relations between Japan and Viet Nam, which were defined as strategic partnership by the prime ministers of the two countries in October 2006.
He also noted that Japan decides to increase its development assistance to Viet Nam as Viet Nam integrates further into the world economy, more resources will be needed for improvement of the national competitiveness and acceleration of Viet Nam’s institutional reforms.
Japan, as well as other international donors, appreciates that Viet Nam is a good ODA recipient, the Japanese Ambassador added, “I would say that we are rather satisfied with the way Viet Nam has used our money,” but a concern over the slow disbursement of the ODA still remains.
Despite increasing its ODA loan to Viet Nam, Japan is slightlly reducing its non-refundable assistance compared with last year. This is not the only case for Viet Nam but a common trend that is happening to other countries in the world, especially the middle-income countries, Ambassador Norio Hattori explained. “Vietnam is approaching the middle-income countries and there are other poorer countries that need more grant assistance than Viet Nam.”
At the same time, he also said Viet Nam now has huge needs for infrastruture projects such as roads, airports, ports and power station, which are best suited for receiving ODA loans as they are capable of generating profits.
Japan’s aid to Viet Nam in the non-profit areas such as health, education and poverty reduction has been effectively benefited to Vietnamese people.
Both Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung and President Nguyen Minh Triet have recognised the importance of Japanese assistance in the attainment of Viet Nam’s socio-economic successes over the years. They particularly highlighted Japan’s support in three infrastructure projects that have strategic meaning to the country’s economic development in the future.
President Nguyen Minh Triet and Japan’s newly appointed Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda agreed on a cooperation project on building up a strategic partnership between the two countries in November 2007, in which the Japanese PM reiterated his support to Viet Nam through continued assistance to help improve Vietnamese people’s living standards, promote economic growth, resolve social issues and those relating to institutional mechanism.
A post WTO deluge in FDI is forecasted
Economists have predicted that at least $20 billion in foreign direct investment will flow into Vietnam this year as the country opens its market after its World Trade Organization accession.
At the Vietnam Trade and Investment Forum in Hanoi last week, one year after Vietnam entered the global trade body, investors and economists said foreign direct investment (FDI) had jumped and would continue to rise.
Gannon Vietnam managing director Walter Blocker, who is also vice chairman of the Asia-Pacific Council of American Chambers of Commerce, predicted that Vietnam would continue to attract more than $20 billion in FDI in 2008 after the country opens more sectors per WTO commitments.
“WTO accession had spurred confidence for investment in Vietnam because the country had committed to adhere to an international system,” he said.
Vietnam has been serious about implementing commitments by improving the regulatory climate to make its laws conform more to international practices and to WTO regulations. The country has revised about 30 laws and ordinances.
“The government has proven its constructive economic course in the past. We are convinced that this course will be continued and build a strong foundation for future investment and success,” said Metro Group vice president Henry O.E. Birr.
Last year, Vietnam recorded $20.3 billion in FDI, a 69.1 per cent increase against 2006.
Ashok Sud, European Chamber of Commerce executive committee member, said it was an astounding figure that had far exceeded domestic and foreign commentators’ expectations.
Deputy Prime Minister Pham Gia Khiem said WTO accession created more of a driving force for Vietnam to reform its internal legislative system to come more in line with international practices, creating a favourable and equal business environment for all economic sectors.
Before WTO accession, there was much anxiety and doubt about the Vietnam economy’s adaptability to the tremendous changes in the business environment as well as about its ability to deal with international integration. Khiem said that outside partners had not really believed in Vietnam’s determination to fully and seriously implement its integration commitments.
“Our great achievements in economic development over the past year have wiped out all those concerns and doubts,” he said.
However, World Bank lead economist in Vietnam Martin Rama said that the country had to improve its investment environment, particularly in tackling piracy, copyright infringement and trademark violations. It also needs to strengthen public investment processes and allow the private sector to take part in infrastructure investment, he said.
“Longer-term planning is needed for social infrastructure, such as in education, vocational training and health systems since Vietnam will continue to attract labour intensive industries. But it will also begin to attract the higher-quality investment requiring a higher quality workforce with higher wages,” said Blocker. (Dau Tu Newspaper)
At the Vietnam Trade and Investment Forum in Hanoi last week, one year after Vietnam entered the global trade body, investors and economists said foreign direct investment (FDI) had jumped and would continue to rise.
Gannon Vietnam managing director Walter Blocker, who is also vice chairman of the Asia-Pacific Council of American Chambers of Commerce, predicted that Vietnam would continue to attract more than $20 billion in FDI in 2008 after the country opens more sectors per WTO commitments.
“WTO accession had spurred confidence for investment in Vietnam because the country had committed to adhere to an international system,” he said.
Vietnam has been serious about implementing commitments by improving the regulatory climate to make its laws conform more to international practices and to WTO regulations. The country has revised about 30 laws and ordinances.
“The government has proven its constructive economic course in the past. We are convinced that this course will be continued and build a strong foundation for future investment and success,” said Metro Group vice president Henry O.E. Birr.
Last year, Vietnam recorded $20.3 billion in FDI, a 69.1 per cent increase against 2006.
Ashok Sud, European Chamber of Commerce executive committee member, said it was an astounding figure that had far exceeded domestic and foreign commentators’ expectations.
Deputy Prime Minister Pham Gia Khiem said WTO accession created more of a driving force for Vietnam to reform its internal legislative system to come more in line with international practices, creating a favourable and equal business environment for all economic sectors.
Before WTO accession, there was much anxiety and doubt about the Vietnam economy’s adaptability to the tremendous changes in the business environment as well as about its ability to deal with international integration. Khiem said that outside partners had not really believed in Vietnam’s determination to fully and seriously implement its integration commitments.
“Our great achievements in economic development over the past year have wiped out all those concerns and doubts,” he said.
However, World Bank lead economist in Vietnam Martin Rama said that the country had to improve its investment environment, particularly in tackling piracy, copyright infringement and trademark violations. It also needs to strengthen public investment processes and allow the private sector to take part in infrastructure investment, he said.
“Longer-term planning is needed for social infrastructure, such as in education, vocational training and health systems since Vietnam will continue to attract labour intensive industries. But it will also begin to attract the higher-quality investment requiring a higher quality workforce with higher wages,” said Blocker. (Dau Tu Newspaper)
Keidanren commits to boosting Japan-Vietnam ties
President of the Japan Business Federation (Keidanren) Fujio Mitarai has confirmed that Keidanren will do its best to contribute to boosting bilateral ties between Japan and Vietnam.
Mr Fujio made the remark at a recent meeting with Vietnamese Ambassador to Japan Chu Tuan Cap who made a farewell visit at the end of his term of office in Tokyo.
At the meeting, Mr Fujio praised fine developments in Japan-Vietnam relations in the past few years, particularly in economic co-operation.
He expressed his desire that Vietnam and Japan will conclude negotiations as soon as possible for the signing of the Japan-Vietnam Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA), which aims at further enhancing bilateral co-operation in trade and investment.
On the occasion, Mr Fujio thanked Ambassador Chu Tuan Cap for his tireless efforts in promoting relations between the two nations over the past four years. (VNA)
Mr Fujio made the remark at a recent meeting with Vietnamese Ambassador to Japan Chu Tuan Cap who made a farewell visit at the end of his term of office in Tokyo.
At the meeting, Mr Fujio praised fine developments in Japan-Vietnam relations in the past few years, particularly in economic co-operation.
He expressed his desire that Vietnam and Japan will conclude negotiations as soon as possible for the signing of the Japan-Vietnam Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA), which aims at further enhancing bilateral co-operation in trade and investment.
On the occasion, Mr Fujio thanked Ambassador Chu Tuan Cap for his tireless efforts in promoting relations between the two nations over the past four years. (VNA)
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